Tennis Stats That Matter (and Which Ones to Ignore)

Tennis is one of the most data-rich sports out there. But most bettors focus on the wrong stats — or get overwhelmed by numbers that don’t actually help.

In this post, I’ll show you which stats to focus on for smarter tennis betting — and which to ignore.

1. 1st Serve % and Win %

These two stats tell you how reliable a player’s serve is — which matters a lot for predicting outcomes, especially in close matches.

• 1st Serve %: How often a player lands their first serve

• 1st Serve Win %: How often they win points off it

High serve reliability = more holds, less pressure, more tie-breaks.

Why it matters:

• ✅ Good servers = safer to back at short odds

• ✅ Low 1st serve stats = vulnerability under pressure

• ✅ Crucial in overs, set betting, and tie-break markets

2. Break Point Conversion & Save %

These stats tell you how clutch a player is in key moments:

• Break Point Conversion: How often a player breaks when given the chance

• Break Point Save %: How often they save break points when defending

These define momentum swings — especially in close matches.

Why it matters:

• ✅ Look for players who save more than they convert = mental edge

• ✅ These stats matter more on slower surfaces like clay

• ✅ Use to assess which player is likely to win long sets

3. Surface-Specific Win %

A player’s overall record can be misleading. Always filter their stats by surface (clay, hard, grass) to get an accurate picture.

Why it matters:

• ✅ Some players look elite on hard courts but collapse on clay

• ✅ Betting against favourites with weak surface records = big edge

• ✅ Helps when betting early rounds or lesser-known events

4. Return Points Won %

This stat shows how well a player handles their opponent’s serve. A good returner:

• Puts pressure on service games

• Creates more break chances

• Can steal tight sets

Especially useful when betting overs, underdogs, or live breaks.

Why it matters:

• ✅ Strong returners are dangerous on any surface

• ✅ Return stats matter more in women’s tennis (less serve dominance)

• ✅ Helpful for spotting potential upsets

❌ Stats to Ignore (or Use With Caution)

❌ Overall Win %

• Too broad — doesn't account for surface, opponent level, or recent form

❌ H2H Record Without Context

• A 3–0 H2H might be misleading if all matches were on a different surface or 2+ years ago

❌ Seedings or Rankings

• Markets often overvalue seeded players — form beats ranking in betting

❌ Aces Alone

• High ace count looks good, but if 2nd serve is weak or movement is poor, it can be misleading

FAQ: Tennis Betting Stats

Q: Where can I find the right tennis stats?
➡️ Use sites like:

• ATP Tour

• WTA Tennis

• Tennis Abstract

• Flashscore

Q: Are live stats reliable for in-play betting?
➡️ Yes — especially 1st serve %, break points, and unforced errors. Just don’t bet based on emotion or crowd noise.

Q: Should I trust form or stats more?
➡️ Combine both: stats give structure, form gives context. Use stats to back up what your eyes and research suggest.

Recap: Stats That Matter Most

• 📈 1st Serve % + Win % — service strength & stability

• 🔁 Break Point %s — who handles pressure better

• 🧱 Surface-Specific Win % — performance where it counts

• 🎯 Return Points Won % — shows break potential

• ❌ Avoid overvaluing seedings, rankings, or generic win %

Final Thoughts

Stats should guide, not mislead. When used properly — and filtered by surface, matchup, and context — the right tennis stats can give you a serious edge over the market.

👉 Next up: a full guide to How to Track Your Bets and Improve Your ROI — so you can turn your betting into a system, not a guess.

Stay with me at tennisbyhmjoro.co.uk for more.